Return to the home page

View our reports and analysis, and download the data behind them.

View our asset-level data providing options for using concessional refinancing to accelerate the phaseout of coal in Asia.

View overview

View initial investors' perspective

View refinancer's perspective

View donor/subsidy provider's perspective

View key takeaways

View assumptions

View data on asset retirement activites in US states, including oil & gas well plugging and remediation, financial assurance, and orphan wells.

Dive into data on Climate Action 100+ target utilities, including CTI benchmarks, Paris-aligned coal & gas phaseouts, comparative economics and more.

Browse country-level data, including Paris-aligned coal & gas phaseouts, comparative economics and more.

Financial retirement mechanisms

Authored by Sam Clissold, Nicolás González-Jiménez, Durand D'souza, Mirabella Pulido

Carbon Tracker's Power Asset-Level Economics Model (CTI-PALEM) builds on our existing asset-level data to quantify the costs of using transition finance to expedite coal phaseouts.

We cost coal retirements to support three key financial stakeholder groups when refinancing and making retirement deals. Using the tabs below, you can view data from the perspective of:

Initial investors: The initial equity sponsor and bank(s) that lent capital to construct the coal plant.
Refinancers: International public and/or development finance institutions that want to assist developing economies in decarbonising their energy sectors.
Donor/subsidy providers: Donors or sources of subsidy funding, like philanthropies or carbon revenues, that can provide additional payments to ensure refinancers meet their minimum return on investment in the case of early retirement.

Overview

CTI-PALEM generates data for multiple combinations of concessional debt and/or equity refinancing across a spectrum of more or less aggressive phaseout scenarios, allowing users to interactively choose financial parameters and timelines. All costs and phaseout pathways are modelled such that stakeholders receive a return on investment equal to their hurdle rate.

This data is underpinned by detailed, asset-level, discounted cashflow analyses based on publicly-available information. We have modelled all of the youngest operating coal plants in the Philippines, which reached financial close on or after 2010.

This tool is useful for key stakeholders involved in financing the energy transition in developing economies. CTI-PALEM can be used to identify priority coal units and cost-optimised phaseout pathways in ways that not only minimise the need for transition finance, but also to extract the highest value for money on a US$/tCO2-avoided basis.

Coal refinancing and retirement 101

Business as usual

The coal unit is operating as usual, generating revenue for its initial investors and paying off its loan. It will retire at the end of its BAU lifetime.

Methodology inspired by Clark et al. (2023), Capitalizing on Coal: Early Retirement Options for China-Financed Coal Plants in Southeast Asia and Beyond

Start Year:

Refinancing Year:

Early Retirement Year:

BAU Retirement Year:

Carbon Tracker is a non-profit company set up to produce new thinking on climate risk. The organisation is funded by a range of European and American foundations. Carbon Tracker is not an investment adviser, and makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in any particular company or investment fund or other vehicle. A decision to invest in any such investment fund or other entity should not be made in reliance on any of the statements set forth in this publication. While the organisations have obtained information believed to be reliable, they shall not be liable for any claims or losses of any nature in connection with information contained in this document, including but not limited to, lost profits or punitive or consequential damages. The information used to compile this report has been collected from a number of sources in the public domain and from Carbon Tracker licensors. Some of its content may be proprietary and belong to Carbon Tracker or its licensors. The information contained in this research report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities within any jurisdiction. The information is not intended as financial advice. This research report provides general inform ation only. The information and opinions constitute a judgment as at the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. The information may therefore not be accurate or current. The information and opinions contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Carbon Tracker as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness and Carbon Tracker does also not warrant that the information is up-to-date.

Questions or comments? Contact us at data@carbontracker.org