We modeled a coal or gas retirement schedule for each country based on the competitiveness of each unit within its operating
region. We rank the units to develop a retirement schedule, based on the authority, region, or grid responsible
for maintaining security of supply. In regulated markets, we rank the units based on the operating cost, while in
liberalized markets, we rank units based on gross profitability. By comparing unabated coal/gas-fired generation
in a Net Zero (or other) scenario for each region, the highest cost or least profitable
units are shut first, and thus we can identify the Paris-aligned retirement year for each unit.
The scenarios we consider are:
Business as Usual (BAU):
Represents a future without significant changes in policies or efforts to address climate change.
Assumes the continuation of current energy practices and trends.
Projects a trajectory with high greenhouse gas emissions and limited progress toward sustainability goals.
Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS):
Reflects the prevailing direction of energy system progression based on existing and under-development policies.
Incorporates specific sector-by-sector evaluations of policies and measures as of August 2023.
Provides a conservative benchmark and does not assume automatic achievement of all announced goals.
Announced Pledges Scenario (APS):
Assumes full implementation of all recent climate targets and pledges, including net zero commitments, regardless of legal anchoring.
Incorporates ambitious climate goals announced by governments and industries up to August 2023.
Offers a more optimistic outlook for emissions reductions and clean energy technology adoption compared to STEPS.
Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS):
Focuses on achieving sustainable development goals alongside climate objectives.
Balances energy access, air quality improvement, and emissions reduction.
Requires strong policies to align with sustainability targets.
CTI's Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (CTI_NetZero2050):
Our in-house Net Zero by 2050 scenario, inferred from the IEA NetZero by 2050 scenario.
We interpolate the IEA's scenario to the regional level based on a fair share of demand reductions.