We modeled a coal or gas retirement schedule for each country based on the competitiveness of each unit within its operating
region. We rank the units to develop a retirement schedule, based on the authority, region, or grid responsible
for maintaining security of supply. In regulated markets, we rank the units based on the operating cost, while in
liberalized markets, we rank units based on gross profitability. By comparing unabated coal/gas-fired generation
in a Net Zero (or other) scenario for each region, the highest cost or least profitable
units are shut first, and thus we can identify the Paris-aligned retirement year for each unit.
Planned Scenario:
Represents the planned trajectory based on current commitments and announced projects.
Assumes the implementation of all planned projects and policies, reflecting a proactive approach to energy transition.
Provides a benchmark for assessing the gap between current plans and required actions for achieving sustainability goals.
Business as Usual Scenario (BAU):
Represents a future without significant changes in policies or efforts to address climate change.
Assumes the continuation of current energy practices and trends.
Projects a trajectory with high greenhouse gas emissions and limited progress toward sustainability goals.
CTI's Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (CTI_NetZero2050):
Our in-house Net Zero by 2050 scenario, inferred from the IEA NetZero by 2050 scenario.
We interpolate the IEA's scenario to the regional level based on a fair share of demand reductions.